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larry510


Yeah I never saw that coming!  I have the other 66epq.  Mine's not as nice as this one but I only paid like $50 plus grading.  I suspect that it will even go higher.
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larry510
$5 1953C LT 68EPQ.  Three previous examples in 68 grades sell on Heritage for an average price of $481.  Now suddenly Glasser's example pops up and will go for at least $2200 including BP.  FUNNY 20191230_145649.jpg  20191230_145610.jpg    20191230_145623.jpg
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Springfield
Could some of the bids be shill bids just to find the limit of an actual bidder?  It does not make since to pay more than $550 to $600.  It does not make sense to pay $1,800 in my opinion. 
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HoneyBadger
Larry, you have got me thinking about all this...something does smell odd about this auction.
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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TookyBandit

These are some very juicy notes from one of the most avidly collected small size denominations. It’s no surprise that there has already been some strong spirited bidding.  


Heritage runs a tight ship, shill bidding is a good way to get banned.

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HoneyBadger
Yeah, this is most definitely a top notch collection, but like Larry just pointed out with the above example...really?
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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larry510
HoneyBadger wrote:
Larry, you have got me thinking about all this...something does smell odd about this auction.


Agreed.  I don't have a good explanation on it but it's a little suspicious to me.  
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TookyBandit
I get it, but just look at how much those silver eagles are brining ...that were just released last month. 
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larry510
The big problem I see with paying these kinds of prices is you'll most likely be burried in these notes big time.  At some point you need to sell and by then nobody's going to care that they were from the Glasser collection and these hefty premiums likely won't last.  I've already lost money on notes that I thought were good deals at the time I bought.  
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Springfield

What is really sad is the extra 20% auction house premium charge plus perhaps another 10% if the buyer gets whacked with sales tax in their state. The over inflated price now becomes super over inflated. 


For that type of money spent a prudent collector in my opinion should add to their collection more than ONLY one note. 


It would be nice to have that particular note but I believe filling more empty spaces would be a better goal. 

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HoneyBadger
TookyBandit wrote:
I get it, but just look at how much those silver eagles are brining ...that were just released last month. 


Yeah, I know we had a thread on that, but to me that is the numismatic equivalent of a 1AM run to Cook Out to purchase a double order of corn dog trays. Sounds like a good idea in the moment, but at some point the next day there will be pain.

As for these notes, I think the wiser advice would be to skip out on the notes where multiple known examples are present in the field. Not to be an echo of everything Larry is saying (😄), but these notes are not likely going to hold value long term. If it’s a 1-of-1 kind of note, I might could see it, but some of these notes are not rare. Why would someone pay incredibly rare prices for a not-really-rare note? The pedigree? If that is the case, then that is just plain foolish. 

Anyway, my two cents.
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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Delistamps
While these prices are high I don't think they are that surprising given the money a few collectors are willing to spend for top pop, hard to find notes which will improve their registry sets. At some point collectors might not want to pay a high premium because a note resided in the Glasser Collection, but who's to say they might not pay even higher moon money for a note from The Rock's (or some other superstar's) Collection! Let's pull this thread back up in 20 years and add comments at that point. #StrongCurrencyMarket2040 
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HoneyBadger
Delistamps wrote:
While these prices are high I don't think they are that surprising given the money a few collectors are willing to spend for top pop, hard to find notes which will improve their registry sets. At some point collectors might not want to pay a high premium because a note resided in the Glasser Collection, but who's to say they might not pay even higher moon money for a note from The Rock's (or some other superstar's) Collection! Let's pull this thread back up in 20 years and add comments at that point. #StrongCurrencyMarket2040 


It's possible that these prices are the new normal. Also possible that they could go higher in the future with new collectors entering the market. But paper money sales are riddled with examples to the contrary as well.


Example #1) $2 1928B USN Star Note *00944325A (PCGS VF 25PPQ) - Here is a note that did not age well.

Heritage Auction 456 | Lot: 13365 | Jan 11, 2008
Sold For:  $46,000.00
Heritage Auction 3522 | Lot: 18188 | Apr 26, 2013
Sold For:  $32,900.00

Heritage Auction 3531 | Lot: 21665 | Jan 9, 2015
Sold For:  $25,850.00



Example #2) $500 1928 GC A00171569A (PMG GEM 66EPQ) - Someone took a hit on this 1/0 note.

Heritage Auction 3502 | Lot: 14875 | Sep 19, 2008
Sold For:  $149,500.00

Heritage Auction 3522 | Lot: 18258 | Apr 26, 2013
Sold For:  $117,500.00



Example #3) $1 1928 USN Star Note *00007643A (PCGS CU 63PPQ) - Here is a note that is by all estimation rare, yet has not really gained any significant value during its resale.

Heritage Auction 3521 | Lot: 17210 | Jan 11, 2013
Sold For:  $17,625.00

Heritage Auction 3526 | Lot: 17173 | Jan 10, 2014
Sold For:  $21,150.00

Heritage Auction 3561 | Lot: 22206 | Jan 5, 2018
Sold For:  $19,200.00


Someone just saying "its the market" does not really tell us much. Markets go up and markets go down. But I think the examples above tell us something else. For one, both circulated and uncirculated examples can be questionable investments. Also, being TOP POP does not necessarily equate to a great investment either.

What is missing from the equation is information about the collectors.

1) How many new collectors are entering the market? This question is difficult to answer, because we don't exactly have a list. We can only make educated guesses on this one.

2) Are the collectors purchasing the notes older or younger? Lets be frank here, most of the people buying these notes are in their retirement years. (Nothing wrong with that, just an observation.) Many collectors are not looking to hold these notes for 40-50 years. Thus the notes are more likely to be placed back on the market sooner rather than later.

(Now that is not to say that younger buyers don't turn over notes. Young people typically do not have the money to make a substantial purchase to begin with, and if they do they are far more likely to turn over an item due to financial necessity.)

As we can see from the above examples, the frequency of sale and duration of time between sales has a lot to do with drop in final sell price. Law of diminishing returns. If the notes go into a long term holding, that is a different story.

Of course, the real wild card is the discovery of more notes. 😒

 
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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MEC2
Keep in mind there are guys selling their startups to Google and $10k for a $2k note is NOTHING to them and its the HAVING that has value, not the ledger line.

Personally, I don't get it, I don't overpay for notes, I underpay, but then again I am poor... at least by this hobby's standards...
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MaineJoe
MEC2 wrote:
Keep in mind there are guys selling their startups to Google and $10k for a $2k note is NOTHING to them and its the HAVING that has value, not the ledger line.

Personally, I don't get it, I don't overpay for notes, I underpay, but then again I am poor... at least by this hobby's standards...


 It's the old saying that still rings true, "money talks and BS walks"! But to comment on being "poor" in this hobby? I take it as a prospective of knowledge and what or how to use it. I have followed you MEC. You may be considered financially poor in prospective to this hobby. But I do believe sir that you are wealthy beyond your personal view. 
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larry510
Honeybadger, 
Take a look at the $5 1953B SC star note over time and you can see how bad of an investment that was too.  Gems that once sold for 19k have since sold for 9k.  
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jhodgson
larry510 wrote:
Honeybadger, 
Take a look at the $5 1953B SC star note over time and you can see how bad of an investment that was too.  Gems that once sold for 19k have since sold for 9k.  


I have always stated this note is very overrated.  When I was collecting serial numbers for this note, I quit when the total hit 75.  Also the serial number range was approximately 400,000 notes.  Too common for prices realized.

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synchr
Some of the margins of PMG notes graded Gem make me wonder also.
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synchr
The nice thing about the post auction prices is that they have the juice added in. 
I snagged a nice $5 COP for $600, all included 
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