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HoneyBadger
...Notes. Are they good investments?

I was pondering this the other day. With US paper money having its ups and downs, collectors entering the market, collectors exiting the market, runs and hoards shaking up the population reports...in contrast do you think world bank notes are a good investment?

Yes, I hate the whole investment aspect of this hobby, but it is a fact that is hard to ignore. Does anyone else think world banknote populations are more difficult to establish? Thoughts on the challenges of pricing and predicting the future movements of these notes? Is this the future of note collecting?

Thoughts?
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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Sergei Aleksandrov
It's a big area, generalisations are very easy and facts are difficult to establish.  If you micro-focus on a particular country etc it is easier to establish patterns with values etc.  Some areas I collect do quite well over time(don't ask) but others not so much IMHO.
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Dan Cong
Fads in collecting, Political events in the home country, economic downturns in the country, etc are pretty unpredictable and could cause massive swings in values. The Southern Rhodesia note (https://www.papermoneyforum.com/post/on-to-plan-b-10497821) did not beat a lesser grade note from a few years ago, but still sold for $13.2K.

So there is serious money in world notes, but as an investment, you would probably needs years of specialist experience to really know the market, and even then things like COVID can whack years of price increases in a month. 

The old adage of quality sells, but as shown with the Rhodesia note, might not make a profit when it does sell. Somebody might have paid $50 for that 40 years ago, so it is a star and an investment in that regard. But they stopped making notes of that combination of rarity and collectibility 60 years ago. 
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HoneyBadger
Well, from my perspective this is an academic discussion. I am under no illusion that my collection of world banknotes are worth anything. I don’t collect them for money. I collect them because I like them. That said, I do take note of the comings and goings among their type.

My Bahamas collection is my primary focus and it has been growing a lot over the course of the past year. Most of the collection is from the last 50 years. Not exactly ancient history. Some are cheap and some are very expensive. The Bahamas is not exactly a mass note producing country, but how are we to know that some of these rare banknotes won’t suffer the fate of other notes that have been sunk by hoard finds? A 1984 $100 might cost $10,000.00 today in 66EPQ. But we are only a small run of notes away from it becoming a $1,000.00 note. That would be a big step down. It is not an implausible possibility.
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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Jim61
After a FUN show, I always know what I should have had stocked up on - hind sight. There are always countries requested That i do not have enough of on hand. ex: After the king of Thailand died, there was a huge rush on Thailand bankotes Of course I didn't have enough of them. You never know
Looking for:
Any small size UNC $1 FRN with serial 16977961.
2009 $1 LX end -61 - CU.
1935A $1 CC HAWAII end -61 raw or PCGS CU or better, PMG ok.
World serial 00000061.
World replacements serials ending -61.
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HoneyBadger
Jim61 wrote:
After a FUN show, I always know what I should have had stocked up on - hind sight. There are always countries requested That i do not have enough of on hand. ex: After the king of Thailand died, there was a huge rush on Thailand bankotes Of course I didn't have enough of them. You never know


😳
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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as219
It's an interesting question. The answer is probably not.

I've collected WPM ("World Paper Money") for 25+ years, focused on the Middle East, so I can only speak to this area.  Values of older, better material have definitely skyrocketed over this period, but surely not at the 9.25% annualized rate of the S&P over the same time.  I like to think I'm very careful in my purchases, which is to say I track prices meticulously and only purchase when I can avoid overpaying.  I have also studied in particular Egypt, and Kuwait and Bahrain for years and focus very closely on these notes...information is of course key when buying better WPM.  Of course, it's not so easy to acquire rare, desirable material at a discount.  Most collectors know what the rare notes are.  Many of my top purchases were made during trips to the region years ago.  I could never buy these notes at auction at these prices again.

I'm fairly confident that when it comes time to sell -- assuming I am able to wait for the right the market --  I will do just fine.  But it's hard to say and not guaranteed.
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tigertrader

Honestly I would steer clear of the world paper...




At least for a couple years until I build up my collection a little more! ðŸ˜‡




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HoneyBadger
Well...just like US paper, older, rare stuff...particularly world notes from 1890's-1930's seem to be good. But I guess my question was more geared towards the flood of notes from the last 50-60 years now being graded.

Give you an example. Last year the Bahamas released a new $1/2 and $3 note. So big dealers got brand new bundles of the things and sent them in for grading. Some 69's and 70's came out of those piles, but then there were crap loads of 65's and 66's. What did they do with these? Put them on eBay. At the present you can't give them away.

There are tons of graded modern world notes from the past 20-30 years that are all over the place...and even more ungraded. Other than collecting nice, colorful designs, is any of that stuff ever going to be worth anything?
FRN Collections Complete - 1928-1934 LGS: $5 [87%] - $10 [37%] - $20 [2%] - $50 [6%] - $100 [0%] - $500 [0%]

http://www.1928notes.com - If you have a new note to add, please let me know.
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as219
Ah, I see, you're asking about modern material.  As a rule, if you can obtain a note by the bundle, it will never be valuable.  There does, though, at present seem to be a market for slabbed modern WPM in super-high grade, but I certainly wouldn't invest in it.  

The caveat here is that countries often have "key" notes, that, while modern, are for one reason or another incredibly hard.  Bahrain p22 (20 Dinars) from 1993 comes to mind.  Qatar p4 (50 Riyals) from 1973 is another one.  UAE p6 (1000 Dirhams) from 1976 as well.  These notes I think make good investments -- assuming you don't overpay -- because collectors need them to complete the countries, and there are only so many of them.  Of course, the value of these notes is driven in no small part by oil prices, which, as you likely are aware, ain't doing so well these days.   So who knows if buying these notes today would be a good investment.

The only thing I would add is that sometimes very common notes have date/prefix/signature combinations that may be incredibly scarce.  Of course, if it's a known rarity, your not likely to get it for cheap.  
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